What a 2022 4-bed townhouse actually did
A 4-bed townhouse bought at the 2022 community median of AED 1.79 million would mark to the last-12-month 4-bed median of AED 2.55 million — about AED 761,000 of price gain, before costs. Add three years of rent at a mid-band AED 180,000 and the cash-plus-gain stack is about AED 1.30 million on the original ticket. Matched same-unit pairs in the book printed a 10% median CAGR; this community-median path is in that neighbourhood.
- 2022 median townhouse
- AED 1,789,000
- Last-12-month 4-bed median
- AED 2,550,000
- Price gain
- AED 761,000
- Plus ~3 years rent at AED 180,000
- AED 1,301,000
Buy a 4-bed townhouse today — 2 and 5 years
Entry is the last-12-month 4-bed townhouse/villa median (AED 2.55 million, 460 sales). Rent uses the middle of the 2026 asking band (AED 180,000). The 10% path is the median CAGR of 1,469 matched same-unit resales. 6% is below that median. 16% matches several Santorini 4-year holds — it is the upper history, not a base case.
| Path | Year 2 value | Year 2 + rent | Year 5 value | Year 5 + rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative 6% CAGR | AED 2,865,180 | AED 3,225,180 | AED 3,412,475 | AED 4,312,475 |
| Observed 10% CAGR | AED 3,085,500 | AED 3,445,500 | AED 4,106,801 | AED 5,006,801 |
| Strong 16% CAGR | AED 3,431,280 | AED 3,791,280 | AED 5,355,871 | AED 6,255,871 |
Valencia studio — on-sale apartment math
Valencia / Lagoon Views studios: official from AED 725,000; last-12-month registered median AED 736,000 on 423 sales. Apartment PSF rose from AED 1,688 in 2024 to AED 1,860 in 2026 YTD. That is rate expansion on a cheaper ticket, not villa-style cash profit. Yield maths uses AED 54,000 / year asking rent. Official from AED 725,000. See Valencia at DAMAC Lagoons.
| Path | Year 2 value | Year 2 + rent | Year 5 value | Year 5 + rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative 5% CAGR | AED 811,440 | AED 919,440 | AED 939,343 | AED 1,209,343 |
| Observed apartment rate path 7% | AED 842,646 | AED 950,646 | AED 1,032,278 | AED 1,302,278 |
| Launch-to-book catch-up 12% | AED 923,238 | AED 1,031,238 | AED 1,297,083 | AED 1,567,083 |
Cetara 1-bed — upcoming, priced off today’s apartment book
Cetara has no launched price. The honest comparable is the last-12-month 1-bed apartment median in DAMAC Lagoons (AED 1.30 million, 633 sales) and Valencia’s official 1-bed from AED 1.3 million. Cetara 1-beds are 723–881 sqft across 382 of 618 units. If launch sits on that ticket, a 2030 handover at the community’s 10% median CAGR is a path — not a promise. Confirm the price list before treating any number as an offer. Full cluster page: Cetara at DAMAC Lagoons.
| Path | Years | Terminal value | + rent over the hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to 2030 handover at 6% CAGR | 3.4 | AED 1,587,270 | AED 1,876,270 |
| Observed 10% community CAGR | 3.4 | AED 1,800,305 | AED 2,089,305 |
| 5 years from a 2026–27 launch | 5 | AED 2,096,884 | AED 2,521,884 |
These are registered sale prices, not forecasts. Matched resales use the same unit number and building. They are evidence of realised prices, not a guarantee of future returns. This page is informational and is not investment advice. Pair this page with rental yields and the matched-resale guide.